2012 Olympic Games - London - Women's Marathon Contenders

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2012 Olympic Games - London - Women's Marathon Contenders
by Sharon Ekstrom

The Contenders:
Mary Keitany | Edna Kiplagat | Priscah Jeptoo | Shalane Flanagan | Desiree Davila | Kara Goucher
Liliya Shobukhova | Kim Smith
 

Victah Sailer / PhotoRun

Undefeated in the half marathon for the past four consecutive years, Keitany has also won all but two half marathons she has ever competed in since her debut, running more sub-67:00 half marathons than any woman. On the championship level, she won silver (66:48) and gold (66:36) at the 2007 and 2009 World Half Marathon Championships. In transitioning to the marathon, her debut at the 2010 New York City Marathon held high expectation. While Keitany failed to hold onto fellow Kenyan Edna Kiplagat's surge at mile 24; her hard surges in a deep field proved her as a serious contender in the 26.2 mile.

Keitany followed a season of victories in 2011 - highlighted by a World Record half marathon finish in 65:50 at the 2011 Ras al Khaimah, followed by a victory of the 2011 London Marathon where she rematched Edna Kiplagat, The pacemaker led the women out at a 2:20 pace and Keitany once again tested the field with heavy surging after mile 16. In top fitness following her world record half finish, Keitany made the 2:19:19 victory look effortless.

Keitany returned to the 2011 New York City Marathon as a favorite in the field. In a show of overconfidence, she blasted out on world record pace at the gun on a course that records are not easily had. Despite taking a solid lead, the speed was too much for her and she faded. It seemed a beginner's mistake, as Keitany was caught by the two strongest Ethiopians in the field. Keitany was 3rd in 2:23:38. In 2012 she knew there was much more on the line as she returned to the London Marathon knowing that the race would determine Olympic berth for the Kenyan team. She finished over one minute up on Edna Kiplagat who she will race at the Olympics.

Why? London may just hold a special place for Keitany who is the second fastest woman to ever run the London Marathon, a race she has one twice. As the fastest African female in the 26.2 mile surpassing running legend Catherine Ndereba, Keitany is the third fastest woman EVER and she has talent and potential to continue to set records in the distance. While the Olympics will not have pacemakers, she will have to rely on her own pacing if she wants to win and a speedy finish.
 

Victah Sailer / PhotoRun

EDNA KIPLAGAT (Kenya)
Age: 32 (Birthdate: 11/15/1979)
PB: 2:19:50, 2012 London Marathon
Reigning World Marathon Champion Edna Kiplagat of no relation to Lornah or Florence is returning to London less than three months after finishing second in a new 2:19:50 personal best at the 2012 London Marathon behind Mary Keitany. Kiplagat has battled it out against Keitany at two other marathons and the London Olympics will be her fourth time.

Kiplagat began her career as a top track athlete -collecting a silver and bronze Medalist in the 3000m at the 1996 and 1998 World Junior Championships. She became a road specialist in the new millennium making a name for herself with victories at highly competitive 10K and half marathon races. In the marathon distance, she worked to make great strides. Proof being victories of the 2010 Los Angeles Marathon. 2010 New York City Marathon and the 2011 World Championships.

She debuted at the 2005 Las Vegas Marathon in a 2:50:20 (10th place), not a top finish expected of an elite Kenyan. She focused on shorter distances on the roads until her breakthrough year in 2010, as she set personal bests at races such as the Steamboat 4 miler (1st place), Freihofer’s 5K (2nd place), Peachtree 10K (3rd place), Boilermaker 15K (1st place). Not to mention two marathon victories in a last ditch effort to prove that she can be competitive in the 26.2 mile races.

At the 2010 Los Angeles Marathon, Kiplagat collected the prize purse plus an additional $100,000 bonus in the " L.A. Marathon Challenge" having not been lapped by the top male elites despite being given an 18 minute head start. Kiplagat was on fire. She headed to the 2010 New York City Marathon where she battled it out against two marathon debutantes - Keitany and American Shalane Flanagan - and won in 2:25:38.

At the 2011 London Marathon Kiplagat took on Mary Keitany (again) and Russian Liliya Shobukhova finishing third in a 2:20:46. A few months later she represented Kenya in the marathon at the 2011 World Championships in Daegu earning gold. Despite the win, she took a fall at a water station during the race and failed to return to 2011 New York City Marathon to defend her marathon title.

Why? While Kiplagat has worked her way to get to the 2012 London Olympics, she delivered a notable performance at the 2012 London Marathon - earning her the Olympic berth for the Kenyan team. While many consider Keitany the favorite, a growing number feel that the odds are higher that Kiplagat could win. She enters the Olympics as one of the more seasoned marathoners who can pace well and has a strong finishing kick if that is what it comes down to. She is also not one to take as many risks with her race strategy.
 

Victah Sailer / PhotoRun

PRISCAH JEPTOO (Kenya)
Age: 30 (Birthdate: 1/18/1982)
PB: 2:20:14, 2012 London Marathon
Priscah Jeptoo seems to be the wild card on the Kenyan women’s marathon team. She didn’t explode into major marathons as many other Kenyans have; but she won the 2009 Porto Marathon in her marathon debut (2:30:40). Jeptoo followed that with a 2nd place finish at the 2010 Padua Marathon and then won the 2010 Turin Marathon (2:27:02). Her improvements continued with another victory of the 2011 Paris Marathon in 2:22:55, the second fastest finish by a woman on the course.

Jeptoo was jettisoned into the spotlight and selected for the 2011 Daegu World Championship marathon team. She earned a silver behind fellow compatriot Edna Kiplagat - contributing to the Kenyan sweep of medals at the women’s marathon.

At the 2012 London Marathon Jeptoo had a shot at making the Olympic team with her silver medal at the World Championships, but solidified her berth with a 3rd place finish behind Mary Keitany and Edna Kiplagat and most notably in front of several top international distance runners.

Why? The answer should be why not! Jeptoo has not competed against these top fields until late 2011 and spring 2012. We have yet to see what she is capable of.
 

Victah Sailer / PhotoRun

SHALANE FLANAGAN (USA)
Age: 31 (Birthdate: 7/8/1981) Boulder, CO
Home: Portland, OR
Coach: Jerry Schumacher
PB: 2:25:38, 2012 Olympic Marathon Trials - Houston
“Dominant” is the word that comes to mind when considering Shalane Flanagan’s talents in distance running. She began as a 10,000m specialist and proved herself against some of the toughest international talent earning the bronze medal at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Flanagan's career had been on the track since high school, but this daughter of two distance runners (Cheryl Treworgy, a female world record holder in the marathon and Steve Flanagan a world cross country athlete and 2:18 marathoner) knew she would eventually be a marathoner. It was just a matter of “when”?

Flanagan quickly took to long distance roads winning the 2010 USA Half Marathon Championships (69:41) in her debut and expectations were high for a strong first marathon performance at the 2010 New York City Marathon. Not only was she poised to do well at the USA Marathon Championships; but in the international race as well. Many felt that she would be the first American woman to win the New York City Marathon since Miki Gorman in 1977, who finished in 2:43:10 at the age of 42. Flanagan at 29 years old delivered on our expectations finishing second female in 2:28:40.

Yet, Flanagan stepped away from the full marathon distance immediately following her debut, citing that her 2012 Olympic focus was primarily on the 10000m. She entered 2011 having won the USA Cross Country Championship 8.0km and the 10000m USA Championships 2011. She followed up with a bronze medal at 2011 World Cross Country Championships, but struggled to reach the podium in the heat of Daegu 2011 World Championships where she finished 7th. Both accomplishments were noteworthy with African dominance in the events.

Flanagan rounded out the year with two half marathon victories at the Rock 'n' Roll San Antonio and the Miami Beach Half Marathon which incidentally was the fastest half marathon run by an American in 2011 (69:58) and began to feel the transition to the marathon would happen with the 2012 London Olympics in mind. Flanagan ran the 2012 US Olympic Team Trials winning the event and securing her berth for the team in 2:25:38. This was her second career marathon.

Why? Flanagan puts her mind to the task and accomplishes it. While solely focused on the marathon, Flanagan ran the US Olympic Team Trials in the 10,000m knowing that she would not run track at the London Olympics to prove that she was capable of track speed. Flanagan was third.
 

Victah Sailer / PhotoRun

DESIREE DAVILA (USA)
Age: 29 (Birthdate: 7/26/1983) Chula Vista, CA
Home: Bloomington Hills, MI
Coach: Kevin Hanson
PB: 2:22:38, 2011 Boston Marathon
While the spotlight on American distance running had been focused on Kara Goucher, Shalane Flanagan and Deena Kastor, Desiree Davila deserves her time in the spotlight. An All-American cross country and track star at Arizona State University and member of the Hansons-Brooks team, Davila's start in the 5000m soon turned to the marathon distance in 2007 with a debut at the Boston Marathon. She finished 18th in 2:44:56 at age 23. Her second place finish at the 2008 USA Half Marathon Championships led to a spot on the US team at the 2009 World Marathon Championships. And prior to the championship event, she ran a 13th place finish at the 2008 US Olympic Marathon Trials (2:37:50 in her second career marathon). She also ran a 5th place finish at the 2008 Chicago Marathon in a 2:31:55, lowering her personal best finish by 6 minutes and 20 seconds.

Davila backed off the marathon distance - part of the Hansons training regimen of one marathon per year, only to return to the distance at the 2010 Chicago Marathon. Davila stunned even herself as she placed 4th and ran 2:26:20 shaving off over 1 minute 40 seconds from her last fastest finish from the World Championships marathon. With steady improvements, Davila bettered her performance at the 2011 Boston Marathon, where once again all eyes were on Goucher for a top finish.

An unstoppable Davila surprised the Boston women's field when at mile 20 she took the lead, pulling the top Africans in the field along with her while trying to maintain her speed in order to have enough for a finishing kick. Davila gave such an incredible effort in the final surges, but finished second in 2:22:38 a mere two seconds off the winner. Davila has now become a threat to top competitive fields.

Davila spent the second half of 2011 focusing on speed, racing predominantly on the track. She finished 4th at the 10000m National Championships in Eugene (a personal best) and a 4th place at the 5000m Aviva London meet.

Davila seemed a favorite for the 2012 USA Olympic Marathon team at the Trials in Houston. She worked in hard surges early at the trials, because she knew that she wouldn’t be able to match track star Shalane Flanagan’s speed if it all came down to a sprint. She ran a great race, but couldn’t keep with Flanagan to the finish. Davila took second in 2:25:55.

Why? In 2009 we watched Davila represent the USA at the 2009 World Championships in Berlin finishing on 2:27:52 (11th place) in quite an inspirational race. Davila had a personal best in hot conditions and finished faster than favorite Kara Goucher in what was to be her first sub 2:30 marathon. Davila’s consistent improvements could be indicative of what's to come. If her fitness is not an issue on race day, she remains a strong contender based on her strategy and mental toughness along with her talent in the marathon distance.
 

Victah Sailer / PhotoRun

KARA GOUCHER (USA)
Age: 34 (Birthdate: 7/9/1978) Queens, NY
Home: Portland, OR
Coach: Jerry Schumacher
PB: 2:24:52, 2011 Boston Marathon
Kara Goucher's best marathon performance has yet to be seen and having taken Shalane Flanagan as a training partner, Goucher could be on the verge of a break through year. Self-admittedly her own toughest critic, Goucher placed third at the 2012 USA Olympic Trials Women's Marathon following time off from childbirth and some setbacks due to injuries returning to training so quickly..

Although injuries hampered her earlier track career, by 2006, she set personal bests at all distances on the international circuit, running the World "A" Standard in the 1500m, 5000m, and 10000m. At the 2007 World Championships Goucher won the bronze medal in the women's 10000m event, then continued on to win the 2008 US Olympic Team Trials in 5000m and took second in the 10000m behind American record-holder Shalane Flanagan. Although Goucher competed in the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics 10000m finishing 10th with a personal best time of 30:55.16, and the 5000m placing 9th with a 15:49.39.

Yet, Goucher's focus quickly shifted to the marathon with a debut at the 2008 New York City Marathon where she took 3rd in 2:25:53. All eyes were on Goucher as the next great marathoner, as she confidently eyed a victory at the 2009 Boston Marathon in her second attempt at the distance. Although Goucher came in 3rd in 2:32:25, the disappointed runner coached by running legend Alberto Salazar put aside her plans to have a baby and returned to the racing circuit ready to take on the 2009 World Championships. The warm conditions of the World Championships in Berlin led to a disappointing finish of 2:27:48 (10th place). And she sat out of racing in 2010 to have a baby.

In a true test of fitness having trained as much as medically possible during pregnancy, Goucher came to the 2011 New York City Half trying to gauge her fitness levels. While training is not 100%, her 3rd place finish at the half marathon (69:03) gave her the confidence she needed as she heads into spring marathon season. Determined to race well at the 2011 Boston Marathon, she took on one of the deepest fields the Boston women's field has ever seen, finishing 5th in a 2:24:52. It was a personal best in her first true return to racing. She then ran the 2011 Daegu World Championships and finished in a disappointing 13th place; but she was not discouraged. With a new coach and training partner she ran to a third place at the 2012 USA Olympic Trials behind Flanagan and Davila in 2:26:06. She has since finished 3rd at the 2012 New York City Half Marathon and won the USA Half Marathon Championships in Duluth.

Why? If faith and fortitude along with talent play a role in the marathon, Goucher certainly has proven herself time and time again. She has fought the odds before. Expect a great performance.
 

Having built her reputation on the track in the 1500m, 3000m and 5000m, Shobukhova debuted in the marathon at the 2009 London Marathon. Having prepared for a 2:27 or 2:25 finish, Shobukhova surprised herself earning 3rd place in 2:24:24.

She followed up that achievement with a victory at the 2009 Chicago Marathon in 2:25:56. While the win was impressive, her strategy in the race was incredible, as she surged then completed the final mile of the race in 4:35 (the fastest mile in the race) - besting veteran marathoners like 2009 London Marathon defending champion Irina Mikitenko, 2010 Houston and Boston Marathon winner Teyba Erkesso and Ethiopian national record holder in the marathon Berhane Adere.

For 2010, Shobukhova returned to London, once again taking on Mikitenko and a strong field of Russian and Ethiopian talent. Duplicating her finish in Chicago, Shobukhova unhampered by rain sped to victory in the last mile of the race (2:22:25), proving herself as a tough competitor who can deliver a devastating finishing kick. Focused on the marathon distance alone, Shobukhova, 33, bested the field at the 2010 Chicago Marathon; proving that not only does she have the speed, but the strategy and patience to not get carried away by the frantic pace the rabbit and lead Ethiopian challengers failed to maintain. She passed them with a mile to go and took an easy victory in 2:20:25 setting a Russian national record. While disappointed in not breaking 2:20, she took the WMM prize purse for 2009/2010.

At the 2011 London Marathon, this 10th fastest woman in the world attempted to take her fourth consecutive marathon title. After an incredibly fast start, Shobukhova didn't have the wherewithall to catch Mary Keitany who ran off with a victory at mile 14 of the race...a similar strategy that had been employed by Shobukhova in the past - pushing hard early on. She rounded out the year with her 3rd consecutive victory of the Chicago Marathon, winning in a 2:18:20 (a Russian record and the second fastest female finish ever)..

Why? Shobukhova has become one of the top marathoners that has consistently performed well with four victories and 6 for 6 top three finishes since her debut. Shobukhova was the first to come along to push the envelope driving for faster times, when many others were merely going for a race win. While one season away from the limelight could mean she will be racing on fresh legs, it also could be a tough realization that her spot on the top ranks in the marathon world is under threat by a number of newcomers to the distance.
 

A strong contender on the track, Smith was a two-time Olympian from the Athens and Beijing Olympics in the 5000m and 10000m. She was 5th at the 2007 World Championships n the 10000m, 6th at the 2008 World Championships in the 3000m and 7th at the 2009 World Half-Marathon Championships. While her first attempt at distance at the 2008 New York City Marathon led to a DNF, she returned to the marathon at the 2010 London Marathon finishing in 2:25:21 (8th place), setting a national record in the marathon. She returned to New York in 2010 and ran a 2:29:28 (5th place).

While injuries following Boston hampered much of her summer track season, Smith worked on speed and hill reps and returned to racing and won the 2011 Rock 'N' Roll Philadelphia Half-Marathon in 67:11 - the fastest half-marathon ever run on US soil which beat her previous all-comers record of 67:36 from the 2010 Rock 'n' Roll Mardi Gras Half Marathon.

Why? Decorated in the 3000m, 5000m and 10000m, on the track and the half and full marathons on the road, Smith’s last marathon was the 2011 New York City Marathon where she finished 5th in 2:25:46. She has been working hard to get back to the same fitness that saw her lead the 2011 Boston Marathon and if she manages that for the Olympics, the competition grew just that much more intense.