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so much better to hear you've done years of running & some racing... going into your first marathon even gives you pause, it should... I was told that you should always have three goals, the first is the least you'll allow as a measure of success, like FINISH standing (not in the med tent)... the second would be a 'decent time' and the third (for you) might be your BQ... is it possible? sure, if you don't go out too fast, consider haning with or near a pace group but if they screw up run your own race... also if you have perfect weather and your nutrition/hydration goes well... also if you don't have any other health issues and your training cycle goes well... lots can go wrong, a pebble in you shoe, rain, starting out too fast, a cold ot stomach issues...
on the other hand don't be afraid of success, it could happen, I've known half a dozen people who got there BQ the first time out and some of them crashed on there second one becuase they thought they were invincible (and got hot weather)...be sure to come back and report on what actually happens
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