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With sub-20 minute 5K leg speed and a few marathons under your belt you'd probably be capable of a 3:15 or so. But as this will be your rookie marathon, go out at 7:50 - 8:00 minute pace and hold it through the first 20 miles. At that point assess yourself and run accordingly to the finish line. I agree, a 9-minute mile pace will be overly conservative for you.
Tip: run a half-marathon 5-6 weeks from race day to determine your spring fitness level. Then plug that time into a calculator such as:
www.fasterrunning.com/oldsite/calculator2.htm
Good luck!
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