Personally, I have found that the race predictor calculators have been pretty close when predicting "up" from a shorter distance. But they are not as good predicting "down" from a longer distance. This can be explained by my PRs, which are relatively better as the distance goes up.
Here are some reasons for the calculator failing you: - the training was not geared up to the marathon - the race conditions were not supportive of an optimal race performance as predicted - your taper, training, or tune-up races "left the marathon in the workouts"
Given your prior experience, I would recommend 4:15 as your "perfect training, perfect taper, perfect course, perfect weather" target. On the other hand, you should be able to run a 4:22 (10:00/mile pace) on a half-way decent day/course. If you have never run a 4:22 before, then start yourself out at 10:00/mi in your marathon and wait until 20 miles before you decide that you have too much left in your tank.
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