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As far as potential, one never knows. One of the 1976 US Olympic trials participants had a first marathon of 4:30!
On the other hand...my first marathon (1980) was 3:33 which was done on a tough course (Maryland Marathon; now defunct). My longest run prior to that race was 15 miles. I did several 50 mile weeks however.
THAT remains my PR!!! I was to improve my 10K (44:10 to 39:50) but not my marathon...yet. I came within 5 minutes this last year.
So, one just does not know. Just recover well and see what better preparation brings you next time.
ollie
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