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I ran 3:45 at my first (Niagara) last October. My target was 3:20, but after getting stuck in the crowd for an 8:15 first mile I cranked out 3 or 4 7:15's. DON'T watch every mile and try to overcorrect. I paid big time. By the halfway point my hip flexors started to seize up and my stride shortened to the point that my last 6 were 10 min miles. Next month at Cleveland I'm going to start at 10s/mile over goal pace for the 1st 3-5 miles. If I were you I'd start at 8:45, but don't do anything rash if you're slower or get caught in the starting pack etc.
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