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Agree with RNR - set an achievable goal. I was a first timer last October and found just how achievable my goal was (NOT) when I got spanked on the last 6.
The marathon is a thinking race. Don't let your goal interfere with your strategy. Hop's strategy is a sound one. Go out slower than you'd probably like (starting at about 9:10/mile for the 1st 3 miles), just feel relaxed for as long as possible and take stock at half and 20m, making decisions about how much to push.
Whatever you do, don't make any rash overcorrections to your pace just because the goal is in jeopardy.
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