Another thing to keep in mind is that the race time predictors only take a formula to get the time. It doesn't matter if you're a great 5ker and really slow when it comes to longer distances, it will spit back an outstanding time for the marathon. For me, my half marathon times says that I shouldn't have even been able to run my 10k PR. So take the predictors with a grain of salt.
While I do agree with Ollie's comment about setting goals and going all out when it comes time to race, the mind can foresee unrealistic goals. If you aim for 3:45 and run 4:00, then you get more discouraged then if you aim for 4:00 and run 3:45. For me, having a dream of running sub 3:15 in a marathon but knowing that my goal is sub 3:30 works very well. I will be happy if I break one, and estatic if I hit the other. So my advice, which also comes with a grain of salt is to set a goal of around 4:00, since that is what your long runs predict. Then, if you run much faster, you can be pleasantly surprised as opposed to disappointed.
Good luck and beat the clock.
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