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Another thing to keep in mind is that the race time predictors only take a formula to get the time. It doesn't matter if you're a great 5ker and really slow when it comes to longer distances, it will spit back an outstanding time for the marathon. For me, my half marathon times says that I shouldn't have even been able to run my 10k PR. So take the predictors with a grain of salt.
While I do agree with Ollie's comment about setting goals and going all out when it comes time to race, the mind can foresee unrealistic goals. If you aim for 3:45 and run 4:00, then you get more discouraged then if you aim for 4:00 and run 3:45. For me, having a dream of running sub 3:15 in a marathon but knowing that my goal is sub 3:30 works very well. I will be happy if I break one, and estatic if I hit the other. So my advice, which also comes with a grain of salt is to set a goal of around 4:00, since that is what your long runs predict. Then, if you run much faster, you can be pleasantly surprised as opposed to disappointed.
Good luck and beat the clock.
RNR girl
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