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As a first timer/wannabe, I struggle to have confidence that I can finish my upcoming Marathon (Wobegon Trail - MN, May 14th) within the 6-hour course limit (13:45 per mile average). All my long runs to date have been in the 12:45 - 13:15 range overall. I have long runs remaining of 18, 14 and 20 before the taper starts. Last week was in 16-miler where I averaged 12:00 for the first 6, then about 13:00 for the next six and about 14:30 for the last 4 with no gas left at the end. Yesterday I did a 12- miler, started slower, averaged 13:01 for the first 6 and 12:46 for the last six (into the wind) and could have kept running. IF I can stay roughly at this 13- minute mile pace for my remaining long runs, do I have a realistic shot at finishing 26.2 within 6 hrs?
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