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Hello. I've appreciated everybody's great advice on this site over the years, and I have a question hopefully I can get some better perspective on.
34 year old male here. I ran a marathon on June 27 on a hilly, difficult course in Seattle in 3:27 on about 11 weeks of base building and no speed work. I had a 2 second negative split. So, that is what I was starting with at the beginning of this training cycle.
I am running Philly on Nov. 21. It will be my 5th marathon and I've been doing a modified Pfitz 18/55. I've added about 5 more miles to each week, with a peak of 63 miles. For the first time ever, I've also done some speed work. But because of my running group schedule, I run essentially 1 or 2 tempo runs (6:45-7:00 pace for 3-5 miles) a week for speedwork. No VO2Max work, though. No injuries and feel great still (knock on wood).
At the start of training, I was hoping to get below 3:20 at Philly. But I ran a 40:51 10K last week at a moderately hard-but-not-all-out pace.
If you plug this time into the race calculators, McMillan predicts a 3:11:52 and Runners World predicts about 3:08. Using the calculations from Jim2's running page based on my average mileage predicts a flat 3:20.
My question is what pace would you start with if my ultimate goal is a 3:15:59 BQ. Should I start around a 3:17:00 goal pace and try to speed up after 20 miles to lose that one minute, try the 3:15:59 pace from the start or should I rule out a BQ attempt altogether and be happy with my 3:20.
Also, I have four-five weeks left, so if you have any tips on what to focus on for the remainder of the time, that would be appreciated as well. Thanks!
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